Crypto Market Cycles
The cryptocurrency market has garnered a reputation for being a volatile market. The crypto market has made some people overnight crypto millionaires but has also seen a lot of people lose money too. An important thing to know is that markets, both crypto, and non-crypto, are cyclical. In this article, we will take a look at the different phases of these market cycles as well as how to time market cycles.
What is a Crypto Market Cycle?
A crypto market cycle is simply the period between the peak and low of a market and its stages. Market cycles happen in all financial markets. It is a natural procession of cycles that are bound to appear and reappear as time progresses. However, compared to the stock market, cycles in crypto can be significantly shorter due to the rapid price movements.
Market Cycle Timing
A cycle can last anywhere from a few weeks to a number of years, depending on the market in question and the time horizon at which you look. A day trader using five-minute bars may see four or more complete cycles per day while, for a real estate investor, a cycle may last 18 to 20 years.
The Presidential Cycle
One of the best examples of the market cycle phenomenon is the effect of the four-year presidential cycle on the stock market, real estate, bonds, and commodities. The theory about this cycle states that economic sacrifices are generally made during the first two years of a president's mandate. As the election draws nearer, administrations have a habit of doing everything they can to stimulate the economy so voters go to the polls with jobs and a feeling of economic well-being.
Interest rates are generally lower in the year of an election, so experienced mortgage brokers and real estate agents often advise clients to schedule mortgages to come due just before an election.
The stock market has also benefited from increased spending and decreased interest rates leading up to an election, as was certainly the case in the 1996 and 2000 elections. Most presidents know that if voters are not happy about the economy when they go to the polls, chances for re-election are slim to none, as George Bush Sr. learned the hard way in 1992.
The 4 Phases of the Market
Cycles are prevalent in all aspects of life; they range from the very short-term, like the life cycle of a June bug, which lives only a few days, to the life cycle of a planet, which takes billions of years.
No matter what market you are referring to, all go through the same phases and are cyclical. They rise, peak, dip and then bottom out. When one market cycle is finished, the next one begins.
The problem is that most investors and traders either fail to recognize that markets are cyclical or forget to expect the end of the current market phase. Another significant challenge is that even when you accept the existence of cycles, it is nearly impossible to pick the top or bottom of one. But an understanding of cycles is essential if you want to maximize investment or trading returns. Here are the four major components of a market cycle and how you can recognize them.
1. Accumulation Phase
This phase occurs after the market has bottomed and the innovators (corporate insiders and a few value investors) and early adopters (smart money managers and experienced traders) begin to buy, figuring the worst is over. At this phase, valuations are very attractive, and general market sentiment is still bearish.
Articles in the media preach doom and gloom, and those who were long through the worst of the bear market have recently given up and sold the rest of their holdings in disgust.
However, in the accumulation phase, prices have flattened and for every seller throwing in the towel, someone is there to pick it up at a healthy discount. Overall market sentiment begins to switch from negative to neutral.
2. Mark-Up Phase
At this stage, the market has been stable for a while and is beginning to move higher. The early majority are getting on the bandwagon. This group includes technicians who, seeing the market is putting in higher lows and higher highs, recognize market direction and sentiment have changed.
Media stories begin to discuss the possibility that the worst is over, but unemployment continues to rise, as do reports of layoffs in many sectors. As this phase matures, more investors jump on the bandwagon as fear of being in the market is supplanted by greed and the fear of being left out.
As this phase begins to come to an end, the late majority jump in and market volumes begin to increase substantially. At this point, the greater fool theory prevails. Valuations climb well beyond historic norms, and logic and reason take a back seat to greed. While the late majority are getting in, the smart money and insiders are unloading.
But as prices begin to level off, or as the rise slows down, those laggards who have been sitting on the sidelines see this as a buying opportunity and jump in en masse. Prices make one last parabolic move, known in technical analysis as a selling climax when the largest gains in the shortest periods often happen. But the cycle is nearing the top. Sentiment moves from neutral to bullish to downright euphoric during this phase.
3. Distribution Phase
In the third phase of the market cycle, sellers begin to dominate. This part of the cycle is identified by a period in which the bullish sentiment of the previous phase turns into a mixed sentiment. Prices can often stay locked in a trading range that can last a few weeks or even months.
For example, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) peaked in Feb. 2020, it traded down to the vicinity of its prior peak and stayed there over a period of several months.
But the distribution phase can come and go quickly. For the Nasdaq Composite, the distribution phase was less than a month-long, as it peaked in Feb. 2020 and moved higher shortly thereafter. When this phase is over, the market reverses direction. Classic patterns like double and triple tops, as well as head and shoulders patterns, are examples of movements that occur during the distribution phase.
The distribution phase is a very emotional time for the markets, as investors are gripped by periods of complete fear interspersed with hope and even greed as the market may at times appear to be taking off again. Valuations are extreme in many issues and value investors have long been sitting on the sidelines. Usually, sentiment slowly but surely begins to change, but this transition can happen quickly if accelerated by a strongly negative geopolitical event or extremely bad economic news. Those who are unable to sell for a profit settle for a breakeven price or a small loss.
4. Mark-Down Phase
The fourth and final phase in the cycle is the most painful for those who still hold positions. Many hang on because their investment has fallen below what they paid for it, behaving like the pirate who falls overboard clutching a bar of gold, refusing to let go in the vain hope of being rescued. It is only when the market has plunged 50% or more that the laggards, many of whom bought during the distribution or early markdown phase, give up or capitulate.
Unfortunately, this is a buy signal for early innovators and a sign that a bottom is imminent. But alas, it is new investors who will buy the depreciated investment during the next accumulation phase and enjoy the next mark-up.
Best Strategy For Investing In Market Cycles
Recognizing cryptocurrency market cycles helps you make sound investment decisions. The best strategy for using your understanding of the market cycle phases is a simple one: buy or accumulate at the bottom when the market is fearful, HODL on the way up, sell during distribution when everyone is happy and greedy, and exit or short before the market plunges.
The challenge here is learning to cast away emotional attachment to positions and not bow to the pressure of FOMO or greed, which could make you buy high or sell low.
Is the Altcoin Market Cycle Correlated With BTC?
Altcoin markets - especially the leading ones like Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), and Ripple (XRP) - closely correlate with Bitcoin. However, this relationship is not fixed. Altcoins may appreciate alongside Bitcoin in value depending on the Bitcoin market cycle phase, or their prices may remain mostly unchanged. In times of market turbulence, altcoins can drop at several times the speed of Bitcoin.
Therefore, to trade successfully, you can follow the numerical ratio between Bitcoin and altcoin prices to gauge their relationship. For example, ETH and LTC are two altcoins that follow Bitcoin, and the latest bull market cycle for Bitcoin saw a corresponding increase in both their values.
Other coins can also match Bitcoin’s movements. However, their relationship can be more complex because many of them have reputations for pump-and-dumps, whereby large investors manipulate prices.
Ethereum, Litecoin, and other altcoins often drop after Bitcoin hits new highs. Investors sometimes pile back into Bitcoin from altcoins because of FOMO, buying heavily and hoping to benefit from the rapid rise. The problem with this approach is that Bitcoin is notoriously volatile, and jumping in based on FOMO doesn’t always end up well.
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